A Librarian Calls The Police On A Nine-Year-Old, A Journalist Is Fired From A Newspaper, And A Pro Quarterback Watches Tape To Prepare For Games: Why Our Ability To Predict People's Success Is Suspect
The 3-Word Quote: “Predictions? Often Pointless”
1.
Ron loved science.
He was captivated by how things worked and hooked on how things were put together.
But one field of science especially fascinated him - space.
And he was hungry for knowledge about his favorite topic.
So, one day, Ron decided to walk to the local library to search for some space books.
This was 1959. Ron wasn't learning much about this topic in school, so off to the library he went.
Ron walked the one-mile trip alone to the Lake City Library.
He didn't tell his parents he was going; he was only nine years old at the time.
He made the short trip safely and was excited to begin searching for books.
He entered the library, browsed around the stacks, and found some books he was eager to read.
He gathered up his books and headed toward the circulation desk.
He couldn't wait to thumb through the pages of the science books.
But there was a problem.
The librarian wouldn’t let him check out the books.
The police were called.
Ron was in trouble.
2.
Elwyn was born in 1899, and like Ron, he liked science, too.
But Elwyn loved English - especially writing.
Writing was his passion, and he hoped it would become his career.
And after graduating from Cornell in 1921, Elwyn set out to become a journalist.
He thought it was his calling.
He practiced his craft frequently, read voraciously, and studied often.
Except he studied the wrong thing - his main focus of study wasn't writing.
It was girls.
As a young man, he spent most of his time 'studying girls.' He said, 'In particular, I studied a waitress in a restaurant called The Chantecler.'
And at 24, he was 'living the life' of a young single person.
He was having fun.
He wrote some during the day but 'seldom went to bed before two or three o'clock in the morning.'
He stayed up late because Elwyn figured if anything was going to happen to a young man, 'it would almost certainly happen late at night.'
He was searching for excitement.
Finally, in 1922, something exciting did happen.
And it actually involved his writing.
In September of 1922, he landed his dream job as a newspaperman for the city paper.
He had it made.
A young man, a coveted job, a little money - it all seemed perfect.
But just over six months later, he was abruptly fired - for being 'useless' at his job.
3.
A successful quarterback in the National Football League requires a combination of skills.
The job of an NFL quarterback is often considered the most challenging position to play in team sports.
Successful quarterbacks need a combination of skills, including athletic prowess, quick processing skills, a desire to be great, and, at times, luck.
And finding a great quarterback is a constant search for most NFL teams.
But in 2007, one team found their perfect quarterback.
The quarterback played college football at Louisiana State University.
He was an incredible blend of athleticism and size - he stood almost 6 feet 6 inches and was exceptionally fast.
He was uber-talented.
His arm was so powerful he was said to be able to throw a football seventy yards - while on his knees.
One pro scout said the quarterback would be 'hard to pass on' for the first pick in the draft.
Another scout said, 'His talent is substantial. He's a rare combination of size and arm strength.'
Anyone who knew anything about football was dazzled by him.
So, in 2007, he was the number one pick in the draft.
But the team that picked him quickly realized they had made a massive mistake in drafting him.
A single videotape confirmed this mistake.
The Takeaway:
So what do a nine-year-old kid who wasn't allowed to check out library books, a fired newspaper reporter, and an NFL quarterback and a videotape all have in common?
All three are examples of why predicting people's success is often challenging.
We often get it wrong when prognosticating people's future performance.
Remember Ron?
He was nine and loved science. He wanted to check out science books from his local library.
And that's when the trouble started.
This was 1959 in South Carolina, and Ron was African American.
And because of his skin color, the librarian refused to let young Ron check out books - it was against the law, the librarian told him.
The library was for whites only, she said.
And she was going to uphold the law, so she asked him to leave. She likely wondered why he was there and what he would do with the science books.
But Ron refused to leave the library. He just wanted to check out some books.
Ron's brother said the librarian told Ron: "Young man, if you don't leave the library right now, I'm gonna call the police.'
This might have been standard practice in 1959 at this library.
But Ron hopped up on the counter and said, 'I'll wait.'
So the police were called.
To the library.
On a nine-year-old.
And Ron's mother was called, too.
The police arrived and were somewhat sympathetic to Ron's plight. Couldn't the librarian just let him have the books, they asked.
Ron's mother had arrived at the scene. She personally guaranteed that Ron would take great care of the books.
The librarian reluctantly caved.
Ron got the books, although the librarian still didn't know why she had to give them to him.
Ron went home and read the books. And he read many more over the years.
He continued to be fascinated by science and, in 1976, earned a Ph.D. in physics from MIT.
Remember, he loved space.
So, Ron applied to NASA's astronaut program.
His brother wondered how 'a colored boy from South Carolina - wearing glasses, never flew a plane- how was he gonna become an astronaut.'
But NASA accepted him, and Ron did become an astronaut.
And he did go to space - his dream since he was nine years old, thumbing through those library books.
He visited space twice, becoming the second African American ever in space.
But his second trip was on January 28, 1986.
And on that day, just 73 seconds into flight, the space shuttle Challenger exploded.
The explosion killed all seven astronauts on board instantly.
Ronald McNair was 35 years old.
Remember that library that wouldn't let Ron check out books?
That library is now named after him.
The Ronald McNair Life History Center opened in 2011.
***
Elwyn, the journalist fired six months into his job, liked science too.
In fact, he wrote a book about animals later in life.
But before that animal book was published, he was fired from the city newspaper.
Elwyn blamed himself.
He said he had yet to discover 'the eloquence of facts.'
And putting facts in a readable manner is the essence of journalism.
And although Elwyn called himself 'almost useless' as a journalist, he wasn't useless as a writer.
He may not have been suited for journalism.
But he was destined to be a writer.
But the editor of The Seattle Times paper didn't see it.
So he let Elwyn go, but he didn’t stop writing.
Elwyn is an old-fashioned name, and most readers didn't know him as Elwyn.
His writing name was E.B. White.
Elwyn Brooks White.
The book about animals that he would write after being fired from the newspaper?
It is called Charlotte's Web.
One School Library Journal poll declared Charlotte's Web the best children's book ever written.
Number one. The best of all time.
He also wrote Stuart Little and The Trumpet of the Swan - two other very successful children's books.
But there is one other book that E. B. White is known for.
A book called The Elements of Style.
It is a book about writing - a book about how to be a better writer.
If you're not familiar with this concise book, it is considered the go-to guide for writing.
This book is often cited as the best writing reference book around.
But The Elements of Style was originally written by William Strunk in 1918, not E. B. White.
But White studied under Strunk at Cornell.
And decades after the book's initial publication, White revised and updated it.
His updates were so influential that the guide is often called 'Strunk and White,' and both authors are listed on the cover.
Still required reading for many students, the book is also treasured by many writers.
The writer, Dorthy Parker, once was asked what advice she would give young writers. She said:
'If you have any young friends who aspire to become writers, the second-greatest favor you can do them is to present them with copies of The Elements of Style. The first-greatest is, of course, to shoot them now while they're happy.'
Even Parker knew writing could be challenging.
And The Elements of Style made writing less challenging for many writers.
The guide lives in many homes and thousands of classrooms.
It even lives in many newspaper rooms, too.
It probably even made its way into the newsroom of The Seattle Times.
Remember The Seattle Times? It was the paper that fired E.B. White because he was a terrible journalist.
Now, his book likely helps guide journalists at The Times and thousands of other writers worldwide.
Not bad for a journalist who was fired six months into his first writing job.
***
Like the librarian who wouldn't check out books to Ronald McNair, The Seattle Times editor had a similar problem - he couldn't recognize the talent and desire in front of him.
Greatness is hard to forecast.
A person's future is hard to predict.
We often project our current views of a person and believe this is how they will be in the future.
And we believe our predictions will be their outcomes.
A young African-American boy wants science books. The librarian wonders why. He doesn't get them.
A young journalist can't focus his writing. The editor thinks he can't write. The journalist gets fired.
But positive performance of any kind usually requires patience. People are seen as static and not given room or time for growth and improvement.
Every master was once a disaster, the saying goes.
But people aren't allowed to have a disaster phase. And it is this phase where great growth can occur.
But a boy who is denied books can become an astronaut.
And a fired journalist can end up writing a book on how to write better.
No one saw these things coming.
Because we're poor prognosticators.
***
Occasionally, people do project greatness on others.
Remember that 'can't miss' future NFL quarterback?
He had most NFL teams predicting future greatness for him.
But being a quarterback is hard.
And predicting success is difficult.
The Raiders selected that star quarterback number one in the 2007 draft.
His name was JaMarcus Russell.
The Raiders made their prediction about JaMarcus Russell with that draft pick.
And their prediction was wrong.
They thought he’d be great, but he wasn't.
You see, not only do you have to have athleticism, you have to spend countless hours studying to be great.
Quarterbacks study game tape during practice and at home to understand what defenses might do during a game.
They study film to learn hundreds of intricate details about plays.
Coaches often say if you don't study film on Monday through Friday, don't bother showing up on Sunday. Studying film is that important.
So when JaMarcus Russell wasn't dominating defenses in practice and games, the coaches suspected a problem.
The team wasn't seeing much improvement from him, so they thought more game tape studying would be helpful.
So they sent Russell a VCR tape (this was 2007) to study at home.
When JaMarcus Russell returned the next day, the coaches asked what he watched on the tape.
Russell responded, 'Blitz packages.' Seemed a reasonable answer. 'Blitz packages' were things that could be on NFL training tapes.
Except there were no 'blitz packages' on this tape.
But there weren't any teams on the tape either. In fact, there were no plays at all on the tape.
Because the VCR tape that the coaches sent Russell was completely blank.
The blank tape was a test - to see if Russell was studying.
And Russell had failed the test.
Russell, who was immensely talented, only lasted three seasons in the NFL. He had signed a contract worth more than sixty million dollars.
But he wasn't doing the work needed to be great.
Russell may have had other reasons for his lack of success, but 'watching' blank tapes certainly did not help.
One former coach called him 'the biggest draft bust in history.'
But before the draft, almost everyone predicted superstardom for Russell.
Unfortunately, there are no magic bullets in predicting other's future abilities.
When someone is hired, the company makes a prediction. Hiring is a bet that the person hired is suitable for the job and will also grow and improve their skills as time passes.
Most companies bet on performance improvement.
Companies hope they'll have a wise thirty-year veteran, not a first-year employee with thirty years of experience.
There's a big difference between the two.
A 2011 article by the American Psychological Association states that there is no real consensus as to the skills that can predict a person's future job performance.
Intelligence is essential, but skills like 'previous volunteering' and 'putting in extra effort' are among the positive traits that future employees should have.
Ronald McNair and E.B. White seemed to have those traits - but people missed them.
Jamarcus Russell seemed to be missing those traits - but people missed it.
A recent job post read, 'We hire for attitude. We'll train for skill.'
I predict they'll find the right person for the job.
***
3 things before you go:
listen: U2 - Sunday Bloody Sunday (live from Red Rocks)- Great song/great band filmed over 40 years ago. Wonder if they would have predicted they’d be playing a residency in Las Vegas
Watch: The Strongest Predictor For Success by Angela Duckworth. An often watched talk and bestselling book about grit - still engaging and intriguing
Read: Derek Sivers essay, I Assume I’m Below Average. No one says more with fewer words
Thanks for being a reader. I’d love it if you’d forward this on to someone who might like it. See you in 10 days.
-Jeff